Do Unexpected FIFA World Cup Match Results Impact the Stock Market?

Author (Your Name)

Brandan Rivard, Colby College

Date of Award

2014

Document Type

Honors Thesis (Colby Access Only)

Department

Colby College. Economics Dept.

Advisor(s)

Randy A. Nelson

Second Advisor

Samara R. Gunter

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of FIFA World Cup match outcomes on the daily rate of return for the country index of the competing teams. Using data on betting odds, I account for expected outcomes of individual matches. I use the betting odds data to run an Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis to determine the impact of the match outcomes on the stock market, with emphasis on the effect of expectations. This study expands on Ashton et al’s (2011) previous work on the impact of sports outcomes on the stock market by analyzing seven new countries. The results indicate that there is no expectation effect but that there is a significant correlation between wins and an increase in the stock price of that country’s respective market index.

Comments

Full-text download is restricted to Colby College.

Keywords

FIFA, stock market, World Cup, betting

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