Date of Award

2025

Document Type

Honors Thesis (Open Access)

Department

Colby College. Government Dept.

Advisor(s)

Dan Shea

Second Advisor

Carrie LeVan

Abstract

This thesis investigates whether American cities are experiencing a political shift to the right in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, as suggested by recent media narratives. Drawing on an original national survey of 2,385 respondents conducted in early 2025, the study examines attitudinal and demographic changes among urban residents, with a particular focus on ideology, trust in local government, economic perceptions, and views on race and immigration. Despite anecdotal evidence of conservative gains in urban elections, the findings show no significant trend toward conservatism among urban residents overall. In fact, urban respondents were slightly more likely than their non-urban counterparts to report becoming more liberal. The thesis also tests competing hypotheses for localized shifts: that urban Democrats are becoming more conservative, that newcomers to cities are ideologically distinct, and that rising diversity may produce backlash consistent with racial threat theory. Across these tests, little evidence supports a broad ideological transformation. However, respondents who reported becoming more conservative expressed stronger support for neoliberal economic ideas, particularly regarding poverty and government regulation. A logistic regression model confirms that these economic beliefs—not race or crime-related concerns—best predict attitudinal shifts. Ultimately, the study concludes that while cities are not becoming more conservative in aggregate, subtle ideological currents—especially related to neoliberalism—are shaping perceptions of change. The paper calls for more longitudinal and policy-specific research to distinguish between actual shifts in voter ideology and changes in urban policy driven by broader structural or partisan forces.

Keywords

urban politics, american cities, political shifts

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