Date of Award

2024

Document Type

Honors Thesis (Open Access)

Department

Colby College. Environmental Studies Program

Advisor(s)

Stacy-ann Robinson

Second Advisor

Kenneth Rodman

Third Advisor

Cait Cleaver

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are increasingly seeking justice from international courts to address their significant climate change impacts, which are disproportionate to their minimal historical emissions. The Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS), an internationally recognized legal body, has requested an advisory opinion on the obligations of all member states to protect and preserve the marine environment and prevent pollution related to climate change and its impacts. The present study aims to predict the future landscape of climate litigation if the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) specifies that states’ obligations to protect and preserve the marine environment and prevent and control marine pollution includes climate relevant emissions, and further how the strength of the advisory opinion will impact future litigation. Specifically, this study seeks to determine which countries are most likely to initiate litigation based on a strong or a moderate advisory opinion regarding UNCLOS Part XII obligations expected May 21, 2024.

Utilizing realism as the theoretical framework, the study posits that states litigate in international courts to maximize their power and security. Variables serving as proxies for national interest and context were used to devise a predictive model indicating the likelihood of litigation. The hypothesis suggests that SIDS are most likely to support and bring litigation following a strong ITLOS advisory opinion, targeting high-emitting former colonial powers due to SIDS’ vulnerability and economic dependence on the marine environment. The results indicate that COSIS, or individual states like Mauritius and Vanuatu, are the most probable litigants. The conclusion highlights a shift in the theoretical framework that best explains why states sue in international courts in the context of climate change from realism to liberalism. Through international climate litigation, SIDS aim to give international courts more power in the climate change movement, with the hopes that they will achieve some redress and gain more power as a coalition.

Keywords

International Climate Change Litigation, Comission on Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS), Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Law of the Sea, Climate Change, Climate Justice

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