Date of Award
2020
Document Type
Honors Thesis (Open Access)
Department
Colby College. Government Dept.
Advisor(s)
Laura Seay
Second Advisor
Guilain Denoeux
Abstract
This thesis seeks to ascertain the apolitical crisis conditions under which armed non-state actors (ANSAs) accrue power. Existing literature examines the structures that nurture ANSA power, including territorial control, group legitimacy, and access to resources. A monopoly on the use of force enables groups to sustain these structures. I explore whether ANSAs instrumentalize moments of apolitical national crisis to nurture these pillars of power and expect that groups will decrease their reliance on the use of force, instead utilizing catastrophes as opportunities to bolster legitimacy among local populations. Statistical, spatial, and qualitative analyses buttress this pursuit. In short, this research suggests that groups do try to accrue power in times of crisis, though not through service provision. Instead, they rely on force initially, and with an interaction effect between the temporal and spatial variation of their use of force – a curious finding that necessitates further investigation. As well, inter-group competition does not increase; groups instead seek to build alliances when threatened. Lastly, some groups rely on performativity sometimes – namely, politically motivated ANSAs use symbolic appeals. The duration and expansiveness of a disaster might also affect which groups make these appeals.
Keywords
natural disasters, economic crises, political violence, Ethiopia ONLF, Turkey PKK, Mexico Gulf Cartel
Recommended Citation
Kane Jiménez, Samantha J., "Armed Non-State Actor Power Accrual Mechanisms in Times of Apolitical National Crisis" (2020). Honors Theses. Paper 1291.https://digitalcommons.colby.edu/honorstheses/1291
Click below to download supplemental content.
DF Creation.Rmd (31 kB)R Markdown - Initial Data Wrangling
Multiple Linear Regression Models.Rmd (15 kB)
R Markdown - Statistical Analysis
SpatialAnalysis2.Rmd (32 kB)
R Markdown - Spatial Analysis
Case Studies.Rmd (6 kB)
R Markdown - Case Studies Selections and Plots
EM-DAT.xlsx (3589 kB)
Natural Disaster Dataset
Global Crisis Dataset.xlsx (1594 kB)
Economic Crisis Dataset
ansa3.rds (7761 kB)
Subset of UCDP GED excluding state-sanctioned violence episodes
wdi_pop.xlsx (43 kB)
Population Dataset
wdi_sqkm.xlsx (23 kB)
Country Area Dataset
UCDP GED.csv (150542 kB)
ANSA Attack Dataset
thesisCYG.rds (299 kB)
Country Year Group (CYG) Dataset
emdat3.rds (1370 kB)
EM-Dat with corrected lat-long values
ND_Time_Thresholds.zip (35 kB)
Natural Disaster Time Thresholds (ArcGIS inputs)
Spatial Analysis.zip (255769 kB)
Annualized Attacks within Distance Thresholds of Natural Disasters (ArcGIS outputs)
ansa4.rds (1982 kB)
Bare bones of ansa3.rds to quicken processing
emdatloc3.rds (178 kB)
Dataset to join with GIS outputs
emdatloc4.rds (24 kB)
Dataset from which to annualize natural disaster data
km100joined.rds (7283 kB)
Merge of km100raw.rds and emdatloc3.rds
km100raw.rds (4211 kB)
Compilation of annualized 100 km GIS outputs
km100_sub5.rds (42 kB)
100 km Time Intervals
km100_sub6.rds (1 kB)
100 km Mean & Mean Logged Fatalities and Civilian Casualties
km1000raw.rds (217496 kB)
Compilation of annualized 1000 km GIS outputs
km1000joined.rds (322585 kB)
Merge of km1000raw.rds and emdatloc3.rds
km1000_sub5.rds (165 kB)
1000 km Time Intervals
km1000_sub6.rds (1 kB)
1000 km Mean & Mean Logged Fatalities and Civilian Casualties