Presenter Information

Gregory Naigles, Colby CollegeFollow

Location

Parker-Reed, SSWAC

Start Date

1-5-2014 1:00 PM

End Date

1-5-2014 2:00 PM

Project Type

Poster

Description

The 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections were both similar and different in many ways. On one hand, the Democratic candidate was the same in both elections, and similar strategies were employed by both sides in the two elections. On the other hand, the candidates formed slightly different coalitions, turnout rates were different, and there were some differences in which states the campaigns chose to focus on. I have analyzed the results of these two elections, particularly the 2012 presidential election, in the three states of New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, in order to try to determine where the election results remained the same between the two elections and where they changed, and how the turnout remained the same or changed, and what caused these shifts. Frequently, when people analyze election results to draw conclusions about the behavior of voters, they do so at the county level. In some cases, this makes sense, since county-level data is much easier to collect, and in many states, particularly those with small counties, there is not much variation of election results inside the counties. However, since I knew that I would be analyzing New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, three large states with many populous and diverse counties, I knew that using county-level data would simply not be sufficient. Thus, I decided to collect municipality-level election results from these three states, so that I could look at each individual town, township, and city, compare its voting patterns, and use information such as demographic data, socioeconomic status, and population growth data to draw conclusions.

Sponsoring Department

Colby College. Government Dept.

CLAS Field of Study

Social Sciences

Event Website

http://www.colby.edu/clas

ID

187

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May 1st, 1:00 PM May 1st, 2:00 PM

An Analysis of Municipality-level Election Results of the 2012 Presidential Election in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and Comparison of these Results to those from the 2008 Presidential Election

Parker-Reed, SSWAC

The 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections were both similar and different in many ways. On one hand, the Democratic candidate was the same in both elections, and similar strategies were employed by both sides in the two elections. On the other hand, the candidates formed slightly different coalitions, turnout rates were different, and there were some differences in which states the campaigns chose to focus on. I have analyzed the results of these two elections, particularly the 2012 presidential election, in the three states of New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, in order to try to determine where the election results remained the same between the two elections and where they changed, and how the turnout remained the same or changed, and what caused these shifts. Frequently, when people analyze election results to draw conclusions about the behavior of voters, they do so at the county level. In some cases, this makes sense, since county-level data is much easier to collect, and in many states, particularly those with small counties, there is not much variation of election results inside the counties. However, since I knew that I would be analyzing New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, three large states with many populous and diverse counties, I knew that using county-level data would simply not be sufficient. Thus, I decided to collect municipality-level election results from these three states, so that I could look at each individual town, township, and city, compare its voting patterns, and use information such as demographic data, socioeconomic status, and population growth data to draw conclusions.

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/clas/2014/program/169