Abstract or Description

One of the poorest nations in Africa, the small country of Malawi has recently experienced severe deforestation. From 1990-2010, Malawi lost 17% of its forest cover (FAO 2013). Malawi also has the 6th highest population growth rate in the world (3.3% per year) (CIA 2014). Given this information, our study aimed to predict areas of future deforestation in Malawi. We constructed a spatial model to predict deforestation using the following parameters: distance from roads, distance from major markets, and population density. Our model predicted tree cover loss from 2000-2010 with some degree of accuracy. We then applied this model to currently forested areas to predict areas at-risk for deforestation.


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