Location

Parker-Reed, SSWAC

Start Date

30-4-2015 9:00 AM

End Date

30-4-2015 10:55 AM

Project Type

Poster

Description

Farmland prices in the American Midwest are finally starting to come off of a historic bull-market run that is seen in many counties that make up District 7 of the Federal Reserves Bank (the Chicago Fed) skyrocket to well in excess of ,000 per acre. In our analysis we look at how much control different variables had on the sharp uptick in farmland prices that was experience in the late-2000's. We have compiled data from 1970 through Q4 of 2014 that came from the Chicago Fed (county-level and regional average farmland prices and agricultural loan interest rates), the USDA (figures on seasonal per-acre yields and the marginal costs associated with growing an acre of a crop) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (commodity crop futures prices). Focus will be put on three of the most important staple commodity crops to the American ag sector, #2 dent corn, soybeans and wheat. Each of these crops has a very different market and represent different global economic trends, as corn is principally used for biofuel and ethanol production, soybeans for livestock feed and wheat for human consumption. We will run several hypothesis tests to find the most significant parameters that and control and may forecast farmland prices.

Faculty Sponsor

Daniel LaFave

Sponsoring Department

Colby College. Economics Dept.

CLAS Field of Study

Social Sciences

Event Website

http://www.colby.edu/clas

ID

1562

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

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Apr 30th, 9:00 AM Apr 30th, 10:55 AM

Controls on Farmland Prices in the Midwestern United States, a time-series Econometric Analysis from 1970-2014

Parker-Reed, SSWAC

Farmland prices in the American Midwest are finally starting to come off of a historic bull-market run that is seen in many counties that make up District 7 of the Federal Reserves Bank (the Chicago Fed) skyrocket to well in excess of ,000 per acre. In our analysis we look at how much control different variables had on the sharp uptick in farmland prices that was experience in the late-2000's. We have compiled data from 1970 through Q4 of 2014 that came from the Chicago Fed (county-level and regional average farmland prices and agricultural loan interest rates), the USDA (figures on seasonal per-acre yields and the marginal costs associated with growing an acre of a crop) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (commodity crop futures prices). Focus will be put on three of the most important staple commodity crops to the American ag sector, #2 dent corn, soybeans and wheat. Each of these crops has a very different market and represent different global economic trends, as corn is principally used for biofuel and ethanol production, soybeans for livestock feed and wheat for human consumption. We will run several hypothesis tests to find the most significant parameters that and control and may forecast farmland prices.

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/clas/2015/program/12