Event Title

Do Unexpected FIFA World Cup Match Results Impact the Stock Market?

Presenter Information

Brandan Rivard, Colby CollegeFollow

Location

Diamond 141

Start Date

1-5-2014 1:00 PM

End Date

1-5-2014 4:00 PM

Project Type

Presentation

Description

This study analyzes the impact of FIFA World Cup match outcomes on the daily rate of return for the country index of the competing teams. Using data on betting odds, I create a probability distribution that serves a predictor for expected outcomes of individual matches. In addition to the FIFA World Cup match result data and the stock price data, I use this information to run an Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis to determine the impact of the match outcomes on the stock market, with emphasize on the effect of expectations. By accounting for expectations, this study expands upon previous literature on the impact of sports outcomes on the stock market. In terms of the specific sports outcome of national soccer games on the stock market, this study also adds to previous literature by analyzes seven new countries in addition to the Ashton et. al (2011) study. The results of this OLS regression analysis find that there is a significant correlation between wins that meet expectations and an increase in the stock price of that countrys respective market index.

Faculty Sponsor

Michael Donihue

Sponsoring Department

Colby College. Economics Dept.

CLAS Field of Study

Social Sciences

Event Website

http://www.colby.edu/clas

ID

529

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May 1st, 1:00 PM May 1st, 4:00 PM

Do Unexpected FIFA World Cup Match Results Impact the Stock Market?

Diamond 141

This study analyzes the impact of FIFA World Cup match outcomes on the daily rate of return for the country index of the competing teams. Using data on betting odds, I create a probability distribution that serves a predictor for expected outcomes of individual matches. In addition to the FIFA World Cup match result data and the stock price data, I use this information to run an Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis to determine the impact of the match outcomes on the stock market, with emphasize on the effect of expectations. By accounting for expectations, this study expands upon previous literature on the impact of sports outcomes on the stock market. In terms of the specific sports outcome of national soccer games on the stock market, this study also adds to previous literature by analyzes seven new countries in addition to the Ashton et. al (2011) study. The results of this OLS regression analysis find that there is a significant correlation between wins that meet expectations and an increase in the stock price of that countrys respective market index.

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/clas/2014/program/69